Its not a "losing" situation for the Lions

[Dr. Evil-er]

Haven't finished the thread, but I am hoping Dr. Evil-er chimes in and helps to clarify that an eight percent compound rate of return is HUGE, especially over 39 years. A conservative rate of return would be more in line with less than four percent annually. I do appreciate that you recognized the Dr. as a financial professional, and hopefully he will share a little of his expertise in areas outside of capology.

I wouldn't use 8%, too aggressive. Expect equity market returns to be much lower than pre-turn of the century results going forward. If you are using 9-10% estimates for your own financial planning on the equity side and your advisor is doing the same then get a new advisor cause that isn't going to happen.

Just use pre-tax 6% for the purposes of answering your question on the time value of that $7m. At 6% (simple annual compounding) it'll double every 12 years. So roughly around $68m. I'm sitting in the Punta Cana airport so I'm doing those calculations in my head so I can't verify the specific accuracy of them at this moment.

 

[gandydancer]

You can even make a case that the Lions are now in a rebuilding mode after failing to capitalize on the window Suh provided them.

Needs -

New no.1 WR: Not an immediate need but it's another big one coming soon where the Lions will eventually again lose a great player and be unable to replace him with a player of the same caliber.

RB's need to be blown up: Bell has a lot of fans here. I'm not one of them. He simply fumbles way too much be to be a no.1 back.

Just lost out top player on D and our no.1 RB. And our top player on O is getting older and more banged up.

WR's will need an overhaul. I actually won't be surprised when Mayhew drafts a WR in the 1st round this year. It's not like we don't need them. Hopefully Tate is here for awhile. How many games will Calvin miss in 2015? There's no one behind them. Mayhew is still super confident is Ryan Broyles.

Oline: Need a LG. Lions will pick up Reiff's 5th year but will he bolt after that? How many fans will say cut his ass instead of paying him?

Dline: Yikes. Now we need 1-4 new DT's and we still have rusher roulette on the left side. Sooner than later they'll need a 3 down LE. Ziggy is here for a few more years at least.

Linebackers: Levy is an UFA next year. Lions fans will scream not to over pay him. He'll probably leave anyways. Tulloch is on his last legs. Van Noy has yet to play. Behind them is Whitehead and no one else. A total overhaul to the LB corp could be coming in the next 1-3 years.

Corners are a revolving door of stop gaps, sans Slay. Slay is our no.2. Search for no.1 continues.

We'll need a new SS next year and prob a new FS in next 3 years too.

Prater is good for a few years.

I definitely do not see this team competing for the playoffs. Not with the way the offense has been playing and obviously not without our famed D line intact any longer.

Identity of the team is gone, and so are there chances at a title with this roster. Blow it up.

This seems the Lions were doomed even if Suh stays. Losing Bush means nothing IMO, who is not a #1 RB, maybe considered ours if you meant that?? When he is healthy.

 

[RobBase]

This seems the Lions were doomed even if Suh stays. Losing Bush means nothing IMO, who is not a #1 RB, maybe considered ours if you meant that?? When he is healthy.

With Suh we had a chance to attract FA's looking for a winning team with a perennial chance at a division title. That is gone now. He also made everyone around him better. Even the NFL's most respected players parrot that sentiment.

Like him or not, Bush was the Lions no.1 RB. Now our no.2 is our no.1 by default. It's not like he earned it with all those fumbles.

 

[RobBase]

Stafford 0-18 against winning teams and that was with the no.2 ranked D.

 

[gandydancer]

You tallingbough Bush or Bell on fumbles? There were so many there I am not sure?

Pretty sure there will be a shiny new toy RB coming the end of April.

 

[gandydancer]

Stafford 0-18 against winning teams and that was with the no.2 ranked D.

Now you are going to make me defend Matty. That was 0-2 as a #2 defense. The others were with Suh and company in the middle of the pack.

That is on every guy that dressed and not just Matt. I can blame Suh for some of Matt's loses. After al, he is apparently worth 5-8 a season according to some here.

 

[TBBishop]

South Beach has some mystique to it for some reason. I don't get it but you can't deny the image factor is their for South Beach, plus the no state sales tax and Suh is about the money.

Oakland is my thought on where he lands.....1. It's a short plane ride to his home in Seattle area and 2. I think they will be playing in LA in 2 years.

Detroit / Mayhew, Lewand, and Junior I think have come to grips with the fact he is leaving. They have resigned Prater at a decent rate, 3 mil per year. Plus they have told Tulloch he will be back with a cap hit of 3.2 million. If they believed they had a shot at Suh they would have cut Tulloch and went cheaper than 3 mil per season on a kicker IMO.

Signing a DT to the highest paid defensive player contract in the NFL is a gamble. Not just my belief but NFL history. You see Defensive Ends and OLB get top cash. Rarely a DT. And for QB money a team will expect seasons like last year every year.

I completely agree that Miami has a mistique to it, it's just not some media epicenter is all I was saying. As it turns out, it wasn't about the market, it was about the money. He can swear it isn't but there is no other reason to sign with Miami IMO.

 

[RobBase]

I completely agree that Miami has a mistique to it, it's just not some media epicenter is all I was saying. As it turns out, it wasn't about the market, it was about the money. He can swear it isn't but there is no other reason to sign with Miami IMO.

Stop. This Lions arrogance has got to stop. Miami is the better team, better organization, better history, and they have a better chance to win. He took a total of 2 million less in guaranteed money. Stop acting like he snubbed some elite franchise by leaving the Lions.

 

[TBBishop]

Jones is in the last year of his contract, Johnson could still go elsewhere with the low tender we put on him, Taylor saw a very reduced role last year and Wester is a project. If the $ is right I'd look into Hardy still.

Don't get caught up in the average of any contract because the player almost never gets paid that. The deal I would have in front of Fairley would be one where his third year would be in the $12m range. That should keep him motivated since to earn that big third year amount he needs to play well in year two and he would be a FA after that third year and have a chance for a big pay day if he again plays well.

I'm not caught up in the average of the contract, I'm caught up in how much Fairley is worth and to this point he hasn't shown me that he's worth the posibility of making $9 mil a year. The talent is there but the drive, the motivation is not. Even if he never makes all the incentives that would get him there, you still have to carve out the cap space in case he does, correct?

 

[TBBishop]

Too bad this isn't true. Austin's 2013 defense ranked 12th in yards per game, points per game and total points.

He comes to Detroit w Suh and finishes 2014 w a top 3 defense.

Suh has always been super effective.

The sweet homer-optimism in this thread is hurting my teeth.

No good FAs are coming here. Forget it.

Are you talking about Austin's Baltimore D where he was the DB coach? That's what was 12th? You're grasping at straws now.

 

[RobBase]

Are you talking about Austin's Baltimore D where he was the DB coach? That's what was 12th? You're grasping at straws now.

Nope. That Ravens D was WAAAAAY better than what we're left with now.

 

[TBBishop]

Stop. This Lions arrogance has got to stop. Miami is the better team, better organization, better history, and they have a better chance to win. He took a total of 2 million less in guaranteed money. Stop acting like he snubbed some elite franchise by leaving the Lions.

What I said was Miami is a bigger clusterfuck than Detroit right now, not that Detroit was an elite franchise. Miami WAS an elite franchise when Bob Greise, Dan Marino and most of all Don Shula was there. I mean isn't Shula dead? Miami has been GARBAGE pretty much for 2 decades, their glory days far behind them. I've said my wife is a Dolphins fan. She's been thinking about dropping her Dolphins fandom to be a Lions fan. That should say all you need to know about the Dolphins as a franchise right now. And I love Stephen Ross for all that he does for Michigan but he hasn't done a thing to get Miami on track. And from what I understand Detroit offered Suh $58 mil in guarantees and Miami offered him $60 so unless you've heard different he didn't take less guaranteed money to leave.

 

[TBBishop]

Nope. That Ravens D was WAAAAAY better than what we're left with now.

you know you're going to have to own this irrational stuff in November/December.

 

[TBBishop]

Nope. That Ravens D was WAAAAAY better than what we're left with now.

And again, he wasn't the DC. You can't give him ownership fo that D when he was a position coach.

 

[RobBase]

I mean he only took 2 million more.

Now the Lions have publicly insulted Suh, saying he needs to "come to his senses" and sign with them. Shit is getting embarrassing.

 

[TBBishop]

And you have no visual proof Slay is any good without Suh. It's ludicrous to think Slay actually improves without Suh, but I get it. Lions fans.

It's ludicrous to think that a guy going into his 3rd year won't get better.

 

[RobBase]

And again, he wasn't the DC. You can't give him ownership fo that D when he was a position coach.

My point is very simple. A better D w better corners and better DTs than we have now topped out at 12. It's not perfect science but it gives us something to compare to.

 

[RobBase]

It's ludicrous to think that a guy going into his 3rd year won't get better.

It is? Guys in their 3rd year don't all get better. Now Slay lost his D captain and the guy who puts the pressure on the QB. But now Slay will be even better? Not buying it.

 

[RobBase]

you know you're going to have to own this irrational stuff in November/December.

Good. I hope I'm wrong. Who fucking cares? I was WRONG about Dennard. Go ahead and celebrate our shitty TE. Rob was wrong though. That's what is important here.

 

[TBBishop]

I mean he only took 2 million more.

Now the Lions have publicly insulted Suh, saying he needs to "come to his senses" and sign with them. Shit is getting embarrassing.

Even if he doesn't sign back with the Lions, he's making a huge mistake going to Miami. They've plainly and simply been an inept franchise for a long time now with no reason to think it will be better, Suh or not. I mean they already apparently don't want their huge free agent mistake from last season. They have no clue. You can say I'm blind to what is and isn't with my favorite team, homer glasses, whatever, but from an outsiders perspective who has had to watch a lot of the Dolphins, I can tell you with certainty that they have no clue.