ST thread

[Hit-n-Run]

Boesch had a thumb injury a couple years ago. Thumb injuries can derail a guys offensive production. It appears to have gotten healthy last season with a strong AAA showing.

He's in his prime years and has two more years of arbitration left after 2015. So he's somewhat a cost control player if he resurrects his career. Better than the one good year sign 'em up for two more guys they've been signing the past half dozen years. You can always non-tender a arbitration guy each November....... no long term obligation.

 

[JohnU]

I have yet to see if Boesch can hit lefties or play left field.
His baserunning in the 9th on that play at the plate was discussed by the Cubs announcers.
I didn't pay attention to de Jesus on the bases but that play looked frightening similar to what we saw last year. Even in ST, Riggleman has to have some kind of idea on that. The right fielder was coming up throwing, wasn't like he had to change directions.
Still, Boesch was a spectator on that and it was obvious the throw was coming home.
Ah, ... spring training. Over 162, does that matter? I will forever remind myself that the Royals had the tying run on 3rd base.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Good point on Boesch not getting to second. It's only ST, but I've always been a firm believer in you practice the way you play. Guys on a non-roster invite should be hustling at every opportunity.

They say Boesch plays all three OF positions. He has reverse splits for his career versus left/ right matchups. He's hit about 40 points more against lefties. He's a lefthanded version of Chris Heisey.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Fay is reporting that Bryan Price has sent Cingrani to the bull pen and they are stretching Iglesias out to join the rotation.

Cingrani was scheduled to start today and has been scratched with Iglesias taking his place.

They've also made additional cuts, Holmberg, Corcino, Contreras, Axelrod, Garrett, Dennick, and Moscot were assigned along with OF Felix Perez and catcher Ramon Cabrera.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

No lefty SP again if the current favorites hold onto their spots.

 

[JohnU]

Well, I guess no lefty in the rotation is better than one who can't get anybody out.
The cuts don't surprise me but if Holmberg had made the roster, I would also not have been surprised.
Iglesias was sort of an automatic but I really don't know what he has done yet to impress anyone. Apparently there is something that was pretty clear when they signed him.

Axelrod was sort of on the edge. I figured he'd get the 5th slot.

 

[Redsfan1507]

For some reason, the Reds seem to have an allergy to lefty starting pitching- they can't hit it, and refuse to get any themselves. They have the best lefty SP arm in history and made him a closer. If they don't solve the starting rotation, 35 saves a year, while 15 games out of first place, is insignificant to me. I don't care what kind of bullpen you have, it's always better when the starter leaves with a lead in the 7th or 8th inning. Going to any pitcher in the 5th inning after already giving up 4-5 runs is trouble no bullpen can fix.

Unless Cingrani grows a curveball, or can pitch 175 pitches to get to the 6th inning, neothet is likely, he needs to be a reliever, IMO. Marquis is an expansion team pitcher. The guy wasn't that good when he had upside and a healthy arm. I'll be shocked if he isn't on the DL or DFA list by Memorial Day.

Iglasias has a live arm, but desperately needs to eat a few steaks. He might break a rib on a throw. He's so skinny he makes Billy Hamilton look like the Panda.

Boesch IS Heisey, only he can play 1b too, and he's cheaper. IMO, no loss on Bourgois- a 33 year old career mostly minor leaguer probably isn't the key to the pennant. I'd pick another young OF farmhand that looks like he might make contact once on a while. It's embarrassing this franchise can't seem to find corner outfielders that can hit at all. I'd let Mesoraco stand in LF 2 days a week when he wasn't catching. No matter how bad Meso would be in LF, he isn't giving up as many runs as he would drive in playing 30 more games a year. It's pretty simple math that I wouldn't fuck up for some guys playing great D hitting a powerless .220 for. Just saying.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Possibly the best thing about the Reds starting rotation is, no other team in the NLC has a complete and impressive one either. Lohse is the Brewers #1. Other than Lester, the Cubs have no locks. Wainwright may have an abdominal strain, if so, they aren't scaring anyone. The Pirates hired retread gopher ball specialist AJ Burnett to bolster a rotation anchored by Liriano- even though he looks like the formerly impressive Liriano against our lefty clueless Reds, his ERA and WHIP suggest others don't struggle that much against him.

If the current NLC hitters can't hit these NLC starting pitchers, they might want to polish up their hockey skills. If this division had guys like Gibson, Richard, Scott, Jenkins, Carlton, Niekro, Seaver, Soto, etc. now, not many would hit .200.

If the bench isn't employed too much, our Reds should hit plenty. They may have to put up football score numbers to win though.

 

[JohnU]

Iglesias isn't ready for 2 starts a week. Neither was Cingrani. I imagine Bailey will miss a couple of starts.
I don't know if I want to gamble that Marquis can replicate what Simon did a year ago. Simon is a gutsy pitcher.
All that in the book, if Cueto-Leake-Bailey can all go undefeated, the Reds will win 93 games.

No sweat.

This is perhaps the most peculiar team I've seen from the Reds in at least a dozen years. In past years, it was easy to tell if they were a contender or a chump. This year, it can go either way.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

IMO, most teams have the potential to go either way. The Giants win the WS in even years and miss the playoffs in the odd years the last 5 seasons. The last 5 years the Reds either make the playoffs or play under 50%.

The odds of the Reds using 8-10 different SP throughout the season is a real possibility. That's a huge liability and a struggling rotation wears on the bull pen. They definitely need someone to perform better than expected in the 4-5 rotation. But none of the candidates pitched a full season last year, so it's unlikely either one of the retreads or young guys will post 30+ starts. This season sets up to be better the first half with a fading rotation the second half.

 

[chico ruiz]

the main question this thread poses is, what personnel is available, and vying, for critical roster spots. but, the real question is whether jocketty has implemented (in the last 8 years), or continues to execute, an achievable mlb personnel strategy for a mid-market team's success. jocketty had to feel like a kid in a candy store in 2008. the reds were loaded with young talent. the possibilities were endless going forward. a GM, in the present mlb environment, that sits on his hands, puts the entire organization in peril of quickly becoming irrelevant. there should be no reason the reds minor leagues aren't loaded right now. especially when you consider the overall organizational depth wally walked into. i'm sure jocketty saw the starting pitching problem coming. i'm not saying he was oblivious. he drafted leake in 2010, and subsequent young power arms since 2011. but, he didn't hedge his bets against the 20 to 1 odds of a draftee even making it to the majors. add actual success at the highest level and the odds go up two fold. what could the reds have received, in trade, for any of the starting pitchers after 2012? for example, and going back further, is there anybody on this board that believes the latos for alonso, boxberger, grandal, and volquez trade was a good one? it's not about what those player's numbers have been since. it's about what other GM's around the league thought their individual potentials and values were in december of 2011. jocketty chose to package them all together to receive one starting pitcher. with the exception of volquez, they were all rated as top shelf prospects. what could the reds have received for these players individually or in smaller packaged deals? how -my fellow posters- do you assess the simon and latos trades from the winter meetings 3 months ago? maybe i'm nit-picking, but i suspect, if andrew friedman had been the reds GM the last 8 years, the reds farm system would look a lot deeper right now, with more mlb ready starting pitchers who could throw off-speed stuff with confidence in any count. the proof is in the pudding. 627 wins for the rays since 2008. 585 wins for the reds since 2008. on average, 90 wins a season compared to 84 wins a season. that equates to 1 more win a month. it's that magical number that johnu frequently alludes to. and, it's the difference between being in the playoffs, and not being in the playoffs. walt is GMing like he is in the early years of his st. louis tenure. huntington knew what needed to be done in pittsburgh. the pundits got a good laugh at that hiring, and here's a sample.

And in Pittsburgh there's no reason to believe it isn't going to be the same losing business as usual after new president Frank Coonelly passed over a half-dozen candidates with proven track records in scouting and player development to tap Neal Huntington, another stat guy who had been relegated to third in Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro's chain of command.

i'm pretty sure we all know who got the last laugh in pittsburgh. back then they referred to them as 'stat guys,' as if that's all they knew about the game, and only stats was what they based all their decisions on. if you read between the lines, with a 2015 eye, this next excerpt will explain everything you need to know about the 'respected' walt jocketty. keep in mind that st. louis has always had proportionally more money than the reds.

The firing of respected Walt Jocketty as Cardinals GM last Tuesday by team chairman Bill DeWitt was just another example of the growing trend of meddling owners reducing the powers of the general manager and shifting the emphasis of baseball operations to statistical analysis. In announcing he was parting ways with Jocketty - under whose stewardship the Cardinals had gone to the postseason five times in the last seven years, twice to the World Series and winning it all just last year - DeWitt cited an irreconcilable division within the Cardinals' front office. But it was a division DeWitt created when he promoted Jeff Luhnow, one of the new-wave stat practitioners, as head of both player development and scouting. Jocketty viewed that as a usurping of his powers - especially since Luhnow clearly had the chairman's ear - and let it be known to his friends and associates that he was not comfortable with the new arrangement. In addition, the payroll constraints placed on Jocketty by DeWitt prevented the Cardinals from retaining many of their free agents. It created an annual challenge for Jocketty to "patch the tire" with creative deals with clubs conducting fire sales and signing middle-of-the-road free agents such as Juan Encarnacion and David Eckstein. On the other hand, a big part of Jocketty's undoing with DeWitt was the failure of the Cardinals' farm system to develop any pitchers in a decade and only two frontline players, catcher Yadier Molina and outfielder Chris Duncan, in recent years. It will be interesting to see who DeWitt hires as the new GM as he's already stated a preference for someone between the age of 30 and 40 with a player-development background and an understanding of a middle-market operation.

well, jocketty has his power now, and he's made a mess of it in cincinnati. he's got the 'yes man' he's always wanted managing the team. a 'yes' man is not a good addition to an organization that was absolutely screaming out for new (fresh innovative thinking) blood. a first time manager thrust into a 2 years running playoff team with no ostensible bench / managerial experience. price, being the honest man he is, admitted to freezing up, and being hesitant to do things differently at critical times. also, it was about this time last year when price made some very informal off-the-cuff comments that stuck with me as spring training progressed. he said that he was going to use the bullpen differently by not relying on lefty v. lefty & righty v. righty match-ups as much as his predecessor, and other managers do. in essence, letting relievers stay in the game longer regardless of what stats may say , or not say, for that matter, about a certain matchup. he said it with such conviction that he almost convinced me. upon further reflection i realized that he sounded like a pitching coach and not a mlb manager. walt was too quick to hire price, and a bunch of people agreeing with everything that wally proposes is not a recipe for success. btw, price's theory of reliever usage is not plausible in 2015. when he matches wits with maddon, hurdle, and matheny the reds will -more times than not- come out on the short end of the stick.


imo, much of this was foreseeable 5 years ago, and there is no reason the reds shouldn't have 5 or 6 mlb ready (or near ready) and proven starting pitchers in 2015. there really should be no reason to have marquis and maholm in camp. consistently competitive, and playoff viable, every year should be the goal and there is no plausible explanation for the reds not being exactly that right now. just ask yourself: who was traded, and what did the reds get back? there is no justification for all the reds trades, in jocketty's tenure, not yielding any top shelf prospects. not one, unless you want to count crawford as top shelf. the so-called 'all-in' approach mortgages the near future and suggests there is no longer range strategy in place. 11th hour salary dumps that yield no ostensible mlb ready talent is inexcusable. it's a tough job, in terms of expectation, but gm's have to take chances in the face of impending multiple unaffordable salaries. a strategy, not salary dumps at the winter meetings.

i find it interesting that jocketty hasn't received more criticism, or -at least- scrutiny, on this board.

 

[JohnU]

Chico ('68) ... a lot to absorb here and all of it pertinent. I think there are a couple of comments about Jeff Luchnow that interest me in the middle of this. Other parts, another reply perhaps. (As if a reply were necessary, as opposed to an extension of the conversation) ...

I remember downgrading Luchnow when he started swapping off the Houston players for basically as many guys as he could get. The Astros were staring at seasons with 112 losses and the fans were leaving in the 4th inning after getting a half-price ticket. I recall saying Luhnow was part of a growing trend of new GMs who all thought they could be Billy Beane on the cheap.

Regardless of how it turns out, Oakland is in the hunt EVERY year with a roster that smells like bad sauerkraut on opening day (lower case on that since there really is only one Opening Day.)

I don't know for sure how to evaluate Jocketty now. He was nothing short of the Pied Piper when he came to town to shore up a franchise that was averaging 70 wins a year in a new ballpark that the ownership promised would soon create a championship atmosphere.

The night Bruce hit the walkoff against the aforementioned Astros, I think we all believed that the Gravy Train had pulled into Union Station.

What's happened since could be partly bad choices, bad timing, bad luck or a simple lull before the storm ... either that or the next load of Gravy arrives by space ship.

But looking at this roster, it's essentially what I'd call a diagram. Parts of it seem like they go where they should and the rest of it is just penciled in because you have to put something on the line. Even if this team contends, it's not a challenger. It's not really a contender in the true sense. These guys can't finish the deal. They can't win that extra game every month. Price has marginal control over that.

My opinion: Luchnow is a budding genius, not a fly-by-night preppie with a computer and a baseball cap.

Solutions: Trade Chapman now. Somebody will give up a bat for him. We lose the most exciting "closer" in team history. The problem now is that a Joe Morgan-type trade isn't possible because the advanced metrics won't let that sort of statistical probability slip through the cracks -- if you are Jeff Luchnow.

 

[JohnU]

Another point you raise, Chico, is Price's role in all this. I have found it somewhat maddening to hear that Jocketty basically has anointed certain pitchers as starters about 36 minutes after they were obtained in a trade. Desclafani is the latest. I keep thinking, does Price have any say in who is going to pitch? I always wonder who puts the team on the field and Price is strangely crickets over all this stuff. Maybe that's a good policy, dunno ...

I have no particular problem with Price as a manager given what happened a year ago, other than his choice of third-base coach. I would have preferred Delino DeShields because I like his ideas on small ball. Aside from that, I am willing to give Price more rope with a healthy roster -- unless he is the reason the roster is hurt.

What did Mat Latos actually say that annoyed the front office?

 

[JohnU]

And I think, in fairness, taking a look at Maholm and Marquis is fine in academia, certainly can't hurt ... though I think time would be better invested in giving Corcino and Holmberg the innings. I have always been ruffled by the Reds' unwillingness to promote their talent, rather settling for moving them to the next level. Comparatively, St. Louis moves its talent to the TOP level. Cincy is OK just advancing to Louisville.

And that is not going to change this year. Why Desclafani is better than Lorenzen ... that confuses me.

But I think I am slightly willing to let everyone off the hook until this season starts. I am not nearly as optimistic as I was in March 2014.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I can see Desclafani getting a look. What I don't get is the guys like Holmberg, Axelrod, and even Corcino being dismissed as options so quickly in favor of Marquis. I'm not saying any of those three are great options, but a 36 year old coming off Tommy John that never was all that to begin with.... come on.

Marquis got knocked around a bit with poor command today. As the caliber of competition improves his effectiveness will decline.

Three question marks in the rotation and Homer can only replace one.... it's a problem.

 

[JohnU]

I am mostly a little befuddled by the idea that the Reds staff is continuing this "trust us on this guy" attitude toward a couple of these pitchers, as if we **poofo** just all came to some sudden epiphany about DesClafani's overwhelming ability.

Hey, he might be the real deal but I didn't hear all that much buzz out of Miami about him, considering they wasted no opportunity talking about Jose Fernandez, who still won't pitch till probably August.

I can probably abide Marquis for a couple of early starts since hitting probably hasn't caught up to the pitching yet.

Igelsias may also be legit but there is absolutely nothing in his MiLB pedigree. He pitched in Cuba. We agree that Cuban baseball is good but it's not the National League.

All of which scares the hell out of me when a team can only get a couple of hits through the first 5 or 6 innings of a spring training game.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Back to the Jocketty conversation.

IMO, you have to take ownership's goals into consideration when judging GM performance. How involved is the owner in the decision making process as well as there patience with the GM's agenda.

Jocketty was brought into a win now scenario with Friedman a 5 year rebuild strategy. The Reds had benifitted from losing prior to Jocketty's hiring with top 10 draft positions enabling the team to acquire top prospects. The Rays were perennial 90+ losers through the rebuild and drafted top three regularly. So both teams benifitted in the draft from loing in the early 2000's.

Once the Rays starting winning in 2008 their draft position drastically changed. Their current farm system is rated in the bottom third which corresponds with their draft position. The Reds, IMO, have drafted better than the Rays during the 2008-current time frame.

The Rays have been better at payroll creativity and acquiring under valued free agents, but they don't appear to have a crystal ball when it comes to drafting.

 

[chico ruiz]

of course you have to take ownership's goals into consideration. however, as i pointed out, the 'win now scenario' is no strategy at all.

drafting is only part of the equation, and the rays were only one example. it doesn't necessarily have to be higher draft picks that make a difference on the major league club. also, it's the difference in how they're developing their respective talents in the minors. to use the luhnow example: from 2005 to 2007, the first 3 cardinal drafts overseen by by luhnow, produced 24 future major leaguers. the most of any team during that period. included in those drafts were jaime garcia, allen craig, jon jay, and lance lynn. all big contributors to a consistently competitive, and playoff bound team, every year. and, luhnow did this while the cardinals were routinely winning hugely at the mlb level. it's hard to understand how walt could argue with, or not appreciate, those kind of results.

your point is well taken h'n'r, but, most importantly, i don't see any overall methodology in the reds organization. The reds overall baseball talent selection and acquisition, since jocketty has been in charge, has not worked well, and it gives the impression that the organization is not run in a competent professional way. it seems to me that you have to be creative in terms of economics and contracting. prepared, thorough, and forward thinking. for instance, maintaining an aggressive posture in signing young players to long-term deals to limit costs and gain extra years of control. for example the marlins recent signing of yelich (7 years / 49.5 million). the reds have not been that aggressive.

They have not developed any uniquely reds philosophies or priorities: like an offseason approach of considering any move that best improves the team rather than targeting only a specific need. anytime you have to do something, it's not advantageous. i'm thinking specifically of the winter meeting trades this past december. position yourself so you have options, and make the decisions out of desire rather than need as often as possible. i suppose you can blame ownership for part of this, but the 'respected' walt jocketty has had 8 years to develop talent. how did he lose his job one year removed form a world championship?
i could go on and on about lack of analysis systems, injury prevention, emphasis on flexibility, etc.
The inability to find productive LF's the past 8 years, has been perplexing, if not vexing to me.
it implies they don't do a solid job identifying what they are really looking for — like a player who profiles with a specific skill set or a certain value based on price/contract status point — and take advantage of the narrower scope to increase their focus on legit possibilities. (For example, not wasting time/resources on only free agents you have had as players in the past, but doing extensive research league wide. this is where walt has been particularly inflexible and short-sighted.
i don't know. maybe i'm just tired of cardinal cast-offs like walt and the re-re-treads he's brought along to GABP. it's a big league with a lot of possibilities and visionary potential. it's not just about the salary money a team has to spend, and -early or late- draft choices. it's a part of the puzzle for sure. what i haven't seen is a methodology to address obvious (to us anyway) eventualities systematically.

i have -as many of you do- a deep rooted connection to the reds and i don't want this to turn into a wally bashing thread. the reds latin america program and scouting has produced chapman and iglesias. terry reynolds and walt aggressively pursued these players and signed them quickly. that can only be viewed as a organizational strength. however, the inadequacies, and narrowly focused approach, look increasingly like trends.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't disagree with your assessment of the Reds strategy or therefore lack of a sound plan. I posted a couple years ago that the Reds had a flawed concept.

The Cardinals would have to be the standard bearers. Long term success while maintaining a better farm system than their draft position would suggest. A proven system that yields winning results.

The Reds tend to draft best available talent with a priority being on power arms in recent drafts. They've drafted a lot of back end bull pen guys with the intent of converting them to SP. Should bolster the bull pen, not so sure it'll work out for the rotation.

The Reds have been unsuccessful in their Dominican and Venezuelan programs when it comes to position players. Players such as Henry Rodriguez, Juan Francisco, Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran, etc. haven't panned out in their overall plan. Who is the last Reds' international position player prospect to make a All Star team?

The development of the farm system is of concern. There's no evidence that there is any real concept other than aggressive hitting approaches. Maybe a Jesse Winkler or two that have a good approach, but seems to be more the exception than the rule. Lots of K's, not many BB's, and too many home run or bust at bats.

It's not that the Reds don't have a developmental stategy....... what we're seeing at the MLB level is it.

 

[chico ruiz]

exactly right h'n'r. i should have been more specific. the strategy seems fractured, or fragmented, and gets to the question of functionality. i'd like to hear from 1507 on this subject. he has firsthand experience with this. i love hearing from ballplayers who have been there and done that, because i realize there is a danger in being too theoretical. it can become too easy, outside the sphere of influence, to be hyper-critical. i'd like to hear from johnu on this as well. more the organizational perceived shortcomings, not a ongoing wally bashing. it's a very interesting thread.