Lazy Comparison of 2014 v 2015 Rosters

[Villain]

When the topic of conversation is the changes that the Dodgers made this offseason, one concern that everyone seems to have is "why give up so much power?" This isn't a concern for me, as I am completely sold on the bigger moves that the new front office has made.

But, just for the sake of conversation, I decided to take a quick look at what has left and what is coming.

Going out, the biggest changes are Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, and Dee Gordon. In 2014, that group hit a combined 44 home runs.

Coming in, the biggest changes are Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal. In 2014, that group hit a combined 39 home runs.

So, if one was to assume that everyone were to replicate their seasons--they won't--the front office is only giving up 5 home runs.

Does anyone think Joc Pederson will hit less than 5 home runs this year? GOOD QUESTION!

Let's answer that question with what the computer* thinks!

*The "computer" is each players' 2015 ZiPS projection, retrieved from Fangraphs. I arbitrarily chose ZiPS. If anyone else wants to run through this again with Bill James, Steamer, or whatever, that'd be awesome. Projection Systems | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

OUT
KEMP: 16 HR, .435 SLG
RAMIREZ: 16 HR, .455 SLG
GORDON: 1 HR, .357 SLG

TOTAL = 33 HR

IN
GRANDAL: 13 HR, .421 SLG
ROLLINS: 14 HR, .379 SLG
KENDRICK: 11 HR, .419 SLG

TOTAL = 38 HR

....

Oh, I forgot to include someone:

PEDERSON: 22 HR, .420 SLG

NEW TOTAL = 60 HR

Obviously, this is just one projection model. I didn't cherry pick the systems. I just picked one system and used it for everyone. Also, it is what it is - a projection. That is, there's a lot that could happen to make these numbers be laughably wrong. In the past, they have been. However, they're usually pretty close to the mark so while you'd be wise to take these numbers with a grain of salt, you'd be equally foolish to dismiss them outright.

The point of this exercise is to demonstrate that the changes the Dodgers made were not merely "hey, let's throw offense out the door and get better defenders for less money" as is the thought of lots of people.

I expect the 2015 team to be better than the 2014 on both sides of the ball, and by no small margin.

 

[Villain]

I just got the idea that I wasn't including all of lazy numbers, expecially considering the only thing of value from Dee Gordon: stolen bases.

Last season, the Dodgers led the NL in stolen bases and were second only to the Royals for the most in the bigs. The number one reason for the Dodgers' high total? Stupid question. It's Dee.

Okay so here we go. Same 7 players.

2014

OUT
GORDON: 64
KEMP: 8
RAMIREZ: 14
TOTAL: 86

IN
GRANDAL: 3
KENDRICK: 14
ROLLINS: 28
PEDERSON: 0
TOTAL: 45

2015 (ZiPS)

OUT
GORDON: 50
KEMP: 12
RAMIREZ: 14
TOTAL: 76

IN
GRANDAL: 1
KENDRICK: 12
ROLLINS: 21
PEDERSON: 20
TOTAL: 54

So that's potentially 22 stolen bases lost with those roster moves. Honestly, if nothing else it's safe to say that ZiPS loves the hell out of Joc Pederson. We already know he'll have above average defense, but this system is projecting him to have a 20/20 rookie season.

Also, while we're here, I figured I'd include Puig and Crawford. Last season they combined for 34, and ZiPS predicts they'll each grab 15 in 2015. So, that's more pointing towards a lesser overrall total for the team this season.

Do you guys see this as a problem? What are you overrall impressions?

 

[Villain]