Doug Farrar: Russell Wilson No Better Than .500 QB On Indy & What This Means For RGIII

[redskinsfan]

SI's Doug Farrar came on Chad Dukes show the other day and basically called out Russell Wilson as a system QB. He noted that Wilson's success has, in reality, been a product of all the championship caliber components surrounding him. In fact, he stated that if he played for the Colts, who offer zip in terms of supporting Andrew Luck, he'd be no better than a .500 QB there. He noted that Luck would provide three more wins than would Wilson, which explains why the Colts, an otherwise middling team, is an annual playoff contender. I completely agree with this assessment and it's important to note that Farrar's observations on Wilson are instructive on a number of grounds with respect to RGIII.

First, Wilson isn't nearly as talented as RGIII. Yet, he's gone to two straight Super Bowls. Why? Again, the 'Hawks didn't get there twice because of Wilson but crafted a gameplan that catered to his strengths and minimized his weaknesses. In particular, they steered very clearly away from asking Wilson to win games, especially by throwing the ball, and allowed others like Marshawn Lynch to spearhead their success. How does this translate to RGIII? Weave back in some of the 2012 gameplan that made him great as a rookie, but retain enough of a pro style format so he can ease his way into learning to be a pocket passer.

All this takes into consideration the fact that RGIII, like Wilson, isn't prepared to win games as a pocket passer -- yet. Instead of forcing him to do so, build around him to make his job easier just like Seattle did with Wilson and SF did with Alex Smith and Kap. McCloughan is starting that process but he's still got a long ways to go. Until that happens, RGIII, unlike Wilson, can't develop his skills on the job; rather, he has to do so under fire, behind a sieve-like offensive line that makes him run for his life way too many times.

This may beg the question of why Luck has done so well despite zero supporting staff? That's because he was a pro-ready QB from Day One, something neither RGIII or Wilson were -- or still are. For this reason, if we want RGIII to succeed, he needs to learn his craft without having to win games all by himself. What if he never gets there? He can still be good if we build around him just like with Smith, Kap, and Wilson. But Gruden needs to modify his expectations of RGIII in the short term. By doing that, he can get the guy to learn how to progress as a QB on a gradual learning curve.

Conversely, why is Kap, who's got more raw talent than Wilson, regressing? Because his supporting cast is crumbling. Without things like a legit running game and a first class defense, SF needed him to be a pocket passer to win games for them. However, because he wasn't that guy, he's fallen quickly from grace. And I'll say this for Wilson. If he doesn't improve as a pocket passer, he'll experience the same thing if his team falls apart. If Seattle is going to give him a fat contract now based on his prowess as a system QB, they'll wreck their cap in the coming years.

Which brings us back to RGIII. If he can't be the next Aaron Rodgers, he can still be another Trent Dilfer. Mccloughan has done that before and I'm not sure why he can't do it again. The key is to tweak the system to bring RGIII along slowly. If that happens, maybe we can learn something from what Farrar said the other day about Wilson.

 

[j_y19]

Dude, you (and Farrar) have missed an important point. Wilson has been willing to work within the system that took advantage of his limited skill set. RG3 demanded that the system be changed in total because he did not want to be known as a running QB. In short, Wilson is coachable and willing to do what is best for the team. RG3 has, to date, not been this way, but more concerned about what is best for RG3. As we have all seen, RG3 is not ready to be a pocket passer (and may never be) yet he refuses to run the scheme that would take advantage of his unique skills.

RG3 is completely to blame for his predicament. People need to stop making excuses for him. He needs to pull his head out of his ass, eat some humble pie, and go to Gruden and say I am willing to do what ever it takes to make this team successful.

 

[redskinsfan]

Dude, you (and Farrar) have missed an important point. Wilson has been willing to work within the system that took advantage of his limited skill set. RG3 demanded that the system be changed in total because he did not want to be known as a running QB. In short, Wilson is coachable and willing to do what is best for the team. RG3 has, to date, not been this way, but more concerned about what is best for RG3. As we have all seen, RG3 is not ready to be a pocket passer (and may never be) yet he refuses to run the scheme that would take advantage of his unique skills.

RG3 is completely to blame for his predicament. People need to stop making excuses for him. He needs to pull his head out of his ass, eat some humble pie, and go to Gruden and say I am willing to do what ever it takes to make this team successful.

Actually, I've consistently made that point about RGIII in the past. He's equally to blame in accelerating his learning curve when he's far from capable of handling it. No disagreemebt there.

 

[obibyn]

Dude, you (and Farrar) have missed an important point. Wilson has been willing to work within the system that took advantage of his limited skill set. RG3 demanded that the system be changed in total because he did not want to be known as a running QB.

I said this in another thread as well....but from my understanding it was the pistol offense he was opposed to...because of the college gimmick label it has (especially that triple option BS version with Brandon Banks in the backfield Shanahan was so stubbornly using repeatedly against the Panthers in 2012)....not a offense catered to his talents...

I am going to go out on a limb...and assume Rg3 wouldnt be against a offense much like the one Russell Wilson runs...something we have NEVER used with him.

This is what I cant stand about most coaches...their ego. They believe players have to cater to their offense...instead of utilizing the players talents and catering a offense to their skill set.

 

[j_y19]

I said this in another thread as well....but from my understanding it was the pistol offense he was opposed to...because of the college gimmick label it has (especially that triple option BS version with Brandon Banks in the backfield Shanahan was so stubbornly using repeatedly against the Panthers in 2012)....not a offense catered to his talents...

I am going to go out on a limb...and assume Rg3 wouldnt be against a offense much like the one Russell Wilson runs...something we have NEVER used with him.

This is what I cant stand about most coaches...their ego. They believe players have to cater to their offense...instead of utilizing the players talents and catering a offense to their skill set.

What about the ego of the player demanding that some schemes not be run? That doesn't bother you? How is this any different than fat al saying he didn't want to play NT because it would limit his ability to rack up sacks?

 

[skinsdad62]

I said this in another thread as well....but from my understanding it was the pistol offense he was opposed to...because of the college gimmick label it has (especially that triple option BS version with Brandon Banks in the backfield Shanahan was so stubbornly using repeatedly against the Panthers in 2012)....not a offense catered to his talents...

I am going to go out on a limb...and assume Rg3 wouldnt be against a offense much like the one Russell Wilson runs...something we have NEVER used with him.

This is what I cant stand about most coaches...their ego. They believe players have to cater to their offense...instead of utilizing the players talents and catering a offense to their skill set.

first off the pistol isnt an offense its a formation

2nd the read option is a play not an offense

3rd the skins use the WCO offense

at this point in Rg3's career you have to run those plays to be successful. RG3 isnt ready to run the offense as designed or any pro style offense as designed because he lacks the trust to let the ball go

but the main thing is this whole "pocket passer thing " is driven by Rg3 and his camp . gruden was hired because of this camp

 

[redskinsfan]

What about the ego of the player demanding that some schemes not be run? That doesn't bother you? How is this any different than fat al saying he didn't want to play NT because it would limit his ability to rack up sacks?

Duly noted again. As dad observes below, however, it's both Gruden and RGIII's fault.

at this point in Rg3's career you have to run those plays to be successful. RG3 isnt ready to run the offense as designed or any pro style offense as designed because he lacks the trust to let the ball go

but the main thing is this whole "pocket passer thing " is driven by Rg3 and his camp . gruden was hired because of this camp

And herein lies the problem. Two people with big egos. One who's embarrassed by being viewed as a running back, and who thinks he's the next Aaron Rodgers. Another who wants to give him what he wants, and demands that he play in a system best suited for people like Tom Brady. However, it seems as if neither knows that the WCO isn't a fit for RGIII now. But, hell, full speed ahead, right?

 

[Skin'EmAll]

SI's Doug Farrar came on Chad Dukes show the other day and basically called out Russell Wilson as a system QB. He noted that Wilson's success has, in reality, been a product of all the championship caliber components surrounding him. In fact, he stated that if he played for the Colts, who offer zip in terms of supporting Andrew Luck, he'd be no better than a .500 QB there. He noted that Luck would provide three more wins than would Wilson, which explains why the Colts, an otherwise middling team, is an annual playoff contender. I completely agree with this assessment and it's important to note that Farrar's observations on Wilson are instructive on a number of grounds with respect to RGIII.

First, Wilson isn't nearly as talented as RGIII. Yet, he's gone to two straight Super Bowls. Why? Again, the 'Hawks didn't get there twice because of Wilson but crafted a gameplan that catered to his strengths and minimized his weaknesses. In particular, they steered very clearly away from asking Wilson to win games, especially by throwing the ball, and allowed others like Marshawn Lynch to spearhead their success. How does this translate to RGIII? Weave back in some of the 2012 gameplan that made him great as a rookie, but retain enough of a pro style format so he can ease his way into learning to be a pocket passer.

 

[Skin'EmAll]

I kinda skimmed through all of this but, I don't RGIII is/was vastly superior to Wilson.
The League was concerned about Wilson's height and so immediately dismissed him. He had experience in the pocket in college, RGIII did not.

I think its safe to say the Shanahan/RGIII relationship ended way too soon due to ego and injuries.
In 2012 we simply outcoached teams despite them having better talent on both sides of the ball.
Even with the rule changes we never got to see what this offense could have done or how the defense could have improved.

Ask San Fran, sometimes winning isn't enough.

 

[skinsdad62]

well i think they are wrong on russel wilson . he is much better then they are giving him credit for . to set up the final play in the superbowl wilson hit a pressure pass to an avg wr to give them a chance to win . his skill , his read , his accuracy .

 

[Smart]

Yep, Russell Wilson sure has great stats because of his supporting cast.

Like that awesome offensive lin....oh wait, they suck.
Well, he must have great receivers....oh wait, he didn't throw a single pass to a drafted receiver in the Super Bowl and he has one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL.

Wilson must have those great stats because of his defense. That's it. He had the #2 defense in advanced stats. The QB for #1 must have been amazing! What, he got benched after being completely ineffective?

PS: In what world does Kaep have more "raw talent than Wilson"? Wilson has a much bigger arm than Kaep, is more nimble than him, put up an identical 40, and Wilson has a better and more accurate throwing motion.

The post as applied to RG3 actually isn't terrible, but at some point you have to admit Russ is pretty good. I would have thought putting up 12 YPA in the Super Bowl throwing to a #1 WR who started the year at Foot Locker would have done it, but I guess not. Maybe if he got better WRs and put a QB Rating that was 100 points lower (like everyone's hero Andrew Luck), he might finally get some respect.

 

[Skin'EmAll]

Wilson has clearly proven he's top 10, and he's going to be even better with Graham.
Seattle actually doesn't need any new WRs until Lynch goes. Everybody contributes, you add too many stars and the offense will cost you games. The stars are on Defense, they run the team

 

[TCB]

People just can't seem to wrap their arms around the fact that about 28 teams would have taken Wilson in the first round if they would have known he would be that good. Also, the Hawks will probably make him the highest paid player in history at some point.

 

[redskinsfan]

Yep, Russell Wilson sure has great stats because of his supporting cast.

Like that awesome offensive lin....oh wait, they suck.
Well, he must have great receivers....oh wait, he didn't throw a single pass to a drafted receiver in the Super Bowl and he has one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL.

Wilson must have those great stats because of his defense. That's it. He had the #2 defense in advanced stats. The QB for #1 must have been amazing! What, he got benched after being completely ineffective?

PS: In what world does Kaep have more "raw talent than Wilson"? Wilson has a much bigger arm than Kaep, is more nimble than him, put up an identical 40, and Wilson has a better and more accurate throwing motion.

The post as applied to RG3 actually isn't terrible, but at some point you have to admit Russ is pretty good. I would have thought putting up 12 YPA in the Super Bowl throwing to a #1 WR who started the year at Foot Locker would have done it, but I guess not. Maybe if he got better WRs and put a QB Rating that was 100 points lower (like everyone's hero Andrew Luck), he might finally get some respect.

Doug Farrar isn't some hack blogger who offers up random criticism of players like Wilson. He's an established NFL writer known for his spot-on analysis of player talent. Listen to him explain his views on Wilson, which is something that others share as well. I don't have the link to the podcast, but if you look carefully at what Wilson has done, you'll see that while he's a good football player, he's a very average passing QB. Most teams need the latter to win, and Wilson is simply not that type of QB -- at least not yet. That's why Farrar was saying that if Wilson was on the Colts, he'd be no better than a .500 signal caller.

If you take a look at his stats, you'll see why. Last year, he played in 16 games and averaged 217 yards per game, and had 20 TDs to 7 INTs. On its face, that's, at best, numbers which reflect a classic pedestrian QB. Want to put this in perspective. There's another QB who played 15 games, averaged 218 yards per game, and had 18 TDs to 6 INTs. Who was this guy? Alex Smith.

Why has Wilson imparted the illusion that he's a good (passing) QB? Because he's not had to bear the burden of winning like Luck does. To be sure, he does contribute a lot to Seattle, but not as a QB who passes the ball. If he got stuck on the Colts, who've got no o-line, no running game, lame WRs, no defense and no other supporting players, Wilson would probably be lucky to holding on to the starting job in Indy. Same with Alex Smith and Kap. And because he's not proven he can win as a passing QB, he can never claim to be within the ranks of an elite QB, much less command compensation commensurate to that caliber of field general. The only qualifier here is that he does other things to help his team win, such as running the ball. However, that is a product of the system Seattle has in place, in particular, the fact that it can consistently rely on Marshawn Lynch to move the offense even in situations where the 'Hawks are down two TDs in the NFC Championship Game.

Speaking of that game and the Superbowl, Wilson and Seattle should be awfully grateful they even made it to the Big Game this year. Had it not been for several fortuitous gaffes by Green Bay, we'd be talking about how Seattle didn't make it to the Super Bowl 49. Seattle won the NFC Championship Game because of those several strokes of luck and despite Wilson's awful performance. He can continue to play an important role as a running QB in Seattle's overall system buoyed by its championship caliber defense and running game. When and if that fails (and unless he's progressed as a passing QB), you'll see the regression experienced by Kap when his supporting cast failed him.

At bottom, elite (and good) QBs in this league throw for a lot yards and TDs and minimize their INTs and turnovers. People like Brady, Manning, Bress and Rodgers fit that bill. Throw in Luck for good measure since he led the league in passing TDs in 2014 despite emerging from the same draft class as Wilson and despite the crap surrounding him. What this shows is that if you've got a QB that's worth his salt, he'll be passing early and often. That's simply not Wilson right now. Not by a long shot.

PS: If you think Wilson has something close to the arm of Kap, you'd better put the bath salts down. However strong you may think Wilson's arm is, it's not nearly as strong as Kap's And if you consider Kap's overall physical traits and abilities, in particular how much bigger he is than Wilson, he's unquestionably the better physically gifted athlete between them.

 

[redskinsfan]

Wilson has clearly proven he's top 10, and he's going to be even better with Graham.
Seattle actually doesn't need any new WRs until Lynch goes. Everybody contributes, you add too many stars and the offense will cost you games. The stars are on Defense, they run the team

Wilson would be top 10 -- in the NFC. Let me ask you this: would you take Wilson over Eli Manning, Tony Romo or Sam Bradford (if he's not injured)? No way. How about Cam Newton, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan? No there too. Rodgers, Cutler or Stafford? Same answer. To be sure, some of those QBs have their issues, e.g., Cutler. But if you pair those guys with a system like Seattle's, would they do better than Wilson. You bet. Most of them couldn't run like Wilson does. Others have off-field issues that Wilson doesn't have (e.g., Wilson's high character and work ethic eclipses the serious issues Cutler has). But each have basic drop back, passing skill sets that would make them better passing QBs than would Wilson.

 

[redskinsfan]

People just can't seem to wrap their arms around the fact that about 28 teams would have taken Wilson in the first round if they would have known he would be that good. Also, the Hawks will probably make him the highest paid player in history at some point.

Listen to Farrar's points on Wilson. If he played on the Colts, he'd probably wouldn't be the starter there now.

 

[redskinsfan]

Let me also say this about Wilson: I love his character and work ethic and the fact that he's a devoted man of faith. I'm actually a big fan of his in much the same I rooted for Tim Tebow and Danny Weurrfel. But I'm smart enough to realize that Tebow and Wuerrfel couldn't throw a forward pass and thus never succeeded as an NFL QB. While Wilson isn't nearly as bad as Tebow or Wuerffel, he's also not the elite QB people are making him out to be. I'm hoping he can reach that one day, but the opinion I'm expressing about his current skillset isn't mine alone.

 

[chillerdab]

I don't know dude... Wilson is pretty foookin' good. He may have a great supporting cast, but he seems to be able to make all the throws, from the lasers in between defenders, to the ones over the top, to the touch passes on the run across his body, to the post patterns.

He also is very elusive, takes almost ZERO direct hits, knows how to get down and avoid getting hit, seems pretty humble, and has made it to TWO superbowls in his first year.

Admittedly, I didn't want him to be good. But he's good like Brady's good: clearly above average qb's in excellent systems.

 

[TCB]

Listen to Farrar's points on Wilson. If he played on the Colts, he'd probably wouldn't be the starter there now.

Andrew Luck is on his way to being a hall of fame qb. I doubt many are questioning him being the first player taken here. I even sprinkled in a few more teams that might have not drafted Wilson in the first round. That is about it. The rest of the gm's would sell their wives and children to find the next Russell Wilson.

 

[ckhokie]

Read the OP and saw a dislike. Figured it was a 'Hawks fan or Smart.

Hoop has become awfully predictable...