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LONG POST ALERT!!!!!
I've been thinking about Green's pro potential lately and I can't find anything good other than projections (all say 2nd round). So I took it upon myself to try to find something deeper. What I've done is use Green's stats and compare them to other 4 year PGs drafted in the last 3 years to see how he compares. I like to read advanced stats but I've never done a comparison myself so this is pretty rough. Just a straight up comparison with the best numbers I could fine. I was going to try to embed tables here or come up with a spreadsheet but it makes the post waaaay too long so, sorry, you'll have to skim through each page yourself to compare.
ERICK GREEN
DAMIAN LILLARD
TYSHAWN TAYLOR
JIMMER FREDETTE
NOLAN SMITH
NORRIS COLE
GREIVIS VASQUEZ
ERIC MAYNOR
JEREMEY LIN (UNDRAFTED)
The first thing of note is 4 year players don't often get drafted. The guys selected are pretty much it in the last 3 years. Of those picked, so far only 3 are quality NBA starting PGs, Lilliard (a lock to be rookie of the year), Lin, and Vasquez (who has emerged in New Orleans as good despite being a bench warmer in Memphis). The other players are back ups, some barely seeing the floor (Smith and Taylor). So Green will carry a stigma of the 4 year player with him, but if his numbers are strong enough, he'll get a look. But are they?
I know one of the common things NBA scouts look for in 4 year players is consistency in that can they replicate similar efficiency year to year. Generally the players more consistent pan out in the NBA over those that may have one big year.
Where Green compares favorably:
His true shooting percentage and PER (player efficiency rating) are pretty much in line to be an NBA caliber player (minus his awful first year). His senior season is especially good. His offensive and defensive ratings compare favorably as well (at least for those which are listed, some data is missing). He also has one of the lowest turnover percentages of any of the players listed.
Where Green lacks:
His assist rating isn't as high as most of the other players, sometimes 10 points lower in certain seasons. Some of that comes from splitting time with Delaney in his first two seasons, but it's definitely something the NBA will look at. Something else that doesn't show up on the stat sheet but I notice in game his how well he runs the pick and roll. The NBA's base offense heavily involves the P&R. Green mostly shoots off picks because apparently Greenberg/JJ design no other options. It's hard to say how well he is off these plays without having film. So something I'm sure scouts will look at more closely is if he can make correct reads to pass to the screen setter or to a weak side shooter. Given his low turnover percentage, I'm sure he probably chooses wisely though. It doesn't matter if the open player hits the shot, just that he made the right read. Scouts will notice this on film. They'll see he got Robert Brown a wide open shot and won't care that Robert Brown can't hit a barn standing 2 feet away.
Another thing is while his shooting percentages are consistent, they're a tad low compared to the other players. Chances are the other guards have a higher percentage because they get more layups off picks, etc. Green gets a lot of midrange jumpers. He shoots them well, but it may be seen as a negative that Green doesn't drive often enough to get easy buckets or draw fouls. Advanced stats in the NBA has shown team offense is much better when you drive for easy layups, can draw fouls, and shoot 3s. Midrange 2s (especially long) are typically frowned upon. Teams that shoot a lot of them typically aren't good offensive teams so its important for Green to display he can drive even if he shoots midrange shots so well.
Final verdict:
Most of the projections have Green slated somewhere in the 40s in the 2nd round of the draft. That means his contract is not guaranteed. In fact, most players selected in the 2nd round never make the roster. But all the players I chose that had similar careers to Green were drafted IN THE 1ST ROUND (minus Lin, who went undrafted because let's face it, he's Asian and went to Harvard. OMG, NBA SCOUTS= RACISTS!) So what's that mean for our boy Green? The numbers show he probably won't be a stud like Lilliard (best numbers consistently over 4 years by far), but Erick Green stands a very good chance of making an NBA roster and contributing in a meaningful manner even if as a 8th or 9th man getting a handful of minutes a game. He could very well be a 2nd round steal but given how weak this draft is, he probably warrants a late 1st round look.
Now come on Erick Green! Go make a roster so I don't look stupid.
I've been thinking about Green's pro potential lately and I can't find anything good other than projections (all say 2nd round). So I took it upon myself to try to find something deeper. What I've done is use Green's stats and compare them to other 4 year PGs drafted in the last 3 years to see how he compares. I like to read advanced stats but I've never done a comparison myself so this is pretty rough. Just a straight up comparison with the best numbers I could fine. I was going to try to embed tables here or come up with a spreadsheet but it makes the post waaaay too long so, sorry, you'll have to skim through each page yourself to compare.
ERICK GREEN
DAMIAN LILLARD
TYSHAWN TAYLOR
JIMMER FREDETTE
NOLAN SMITH
NORRIS COLE
GREIVIS VASQUEZ
ERIC MAYNOR
JEREMEY LIN (UNDRAFTED)
The first thing of note is 4 year players don't often get drafted. The guys selected are pretty much it in the last 3 years. Of those picked, so far only 3 are quality NBA starting PGs, Lilliard (a lock to be rookie of the year), Lin, and Vasquez (who has emerged in New Orleans as good despite being a bench warmer in Memphis). The other players are back ups, some barely seeing the floor (Smith and Taylor). So Green will carry a stigma of the 4 year player with him, but if his numbers are strong enough, he'll get a look. But are they?
I know one of the common things NBA scouts look for in 4 year players is consistency in that can they replicate similar efficiency year to year. Generally the players more consistent pan out in the NBA over those that may have one big year.
Where Green compares favorably:
His true shooting percentage and PER (player efficiency rating) are pretty much in line to be an NBA caliber player (minus his awful first year). His senior season is especially good. His offensive and defensive ratings compare favorably as well (at least for those which are listed, some data is missing). He also has one of the lowest turnover percentages of any of the players listed.
Where Green lacks:
His assist rating isn't as high as most of the other players, sometimes 10 points lower in certain seasons. Some of that comes from splitting time with Delaney in his first two seasons, but it's definitely something the NBA will look at. Something else that doesn't show up on the stat sheet but I notice in game his how well he runs the pick and roll. The NBA's base offense heavily involves the P&R. Green mostly shoots off picks because apparently Greenberg/JJ design no other options. It's hard to say how well he is off these plays without having film. So something I'm sure scouts will look at more closely is if he can make correct reads to pass to the screen setter or to a weak side shooter. Given his low turnover percentage, I'm sure he probably chooses wisely though. It doesn't matter if the open player hits the shot, just that he made the right read. Scouts will notice this on film. They'll see he got Robert Brown a wide open shot and won't care that Robert Brown can't hit a barn standing 2 feet away.
Another thing is while his shooting percentages are consistent, they're a tad low compared to the other players. Chances are the other guards have a higher percentage because they get more layups off picks, etc. Green gets a lot of midrange jumpers. He shoots them well, but it may be seen as a negative that Green doesn't drive often enough to get easy buckets or draw fouls. Advanced stats in the NBA has shown team offense is much better when you drive for easy layups, can draw fouls, and shoot 3s. Midrange 2s (especially long) are typically frowned upon. Teams that shoot a lot of them typically aren't good offensive teams so its important for Green to display he can drive even if he shoots midrange shots so well.
Final verdict:
Most of the projections have Green slated somewhere in the 40s in the 2nd round of the draft. That means his contract is not guaranteed. In fact, most players selected in the 2nd round never make the roster. But all the players I chose that had similar careers to Green were drafted IN THE 1ST ROUND (minus Lin, who went undrafted because let's face it, he's Asian and went to Harvard. OMG, NBA SCOUTS= RACISTS!) So what's that mean for our boy Green? The numbers show he probably won't be a stud like Lilliard (best numbers consistently over 4 years by far), but Erick Green stands a very good chance of making an NBA roster and contributing in a meaningful manner even if as a 8th or 9th man getting a handful of minutes a game. He could very well be a 2nd round steal but given how weak this draft is, he probably warrants a late 1st round look.
Now come on Erick Green! Go make a roster so I don't look stupid.
