Odds to win the 2016 NCAA Title

douggie said:

Here were the odds last season...

ODDS TO WIN 2014-15 NCAA MEN'S TOURNAMENT (4/6/15)
School Odds
Kentucky 3/1
Arizona 7/1
**Duke 10/1** National Champions 2015
Wisconsin 10/1
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North Carolina 12/1
Kansas 15/1
Florida 17/1
Gonzaga 28/1
Texas 28/1
Iowa State 35/1
Louisville 35/1
San Diego State 35/1
Villanova 35/1
Wichita State 35/1
Michigan State 40/1
Michigan 45/1
Syracuse 45/1
VCU 45/1
Virginia 45/1
Ohio State 65/1
Oklahoma 65/1
UConn 65/1
Pittsburgh 70/1
Iowa 80/1
Miami, Fl 80/1
SMU 100/1
Field (Any Other Team) 100/1

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douggie said:

TEAM ODDS
Kentucky 7-1
Maryland 7-1
North Carolina 7-1
Kansas 12-1
Iowa State 15-1
Duke 18-1
Gonzaga 20-1
Villanova 20-1
Virginia 20-1
Arizona 30-1
Michigan State 30-1
Oklahoma 30-1
Texas 30-1
Indiana 40-1
Wichita State 40-1
Butler 50-1
California 50-1
Notre Dame 50-1
Texas A&M 50-1
Wisconsin 50-1
Baylor 60-1
Louisville 60-1
LSU 60-1
Michigan 60-1
Syracuse 60-1
Utah 60-1
Dayton 75-1
Miami (Fla.) 75-1
SMU 75-1

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Smart said:

Those four teams appeared to clearly be the best teams before last season, and lo and behold, they were easily the four best teams. I wish I was wealthy because betting those teams would have been like getting free money. Less than half of the money was spent on those four teams, which blows my mind.

Nobody is like that next year. We don't have a team returning the top four players from a Final Four team, a team bringing in the top C and PG recruits after being a 2 seed, a team bringing in a #1 class after reaching the finals, or a team bringing in a top ten recruit and most of its talent back from the #1 KenPom team. Last year, there were four teams which screamed "Title Contender" and all of them legitimately were. No offense to KY, UNC, or MD (all of which I respect immensely after the games they gave our best team ever), but I wouldn't bet any of them with a ten foot pole. KY loses everyone, and the other two were 4 seeds last year. I think next year is gonna be one of those years without a dominant #1 (or 2-5).

The more I look at it, the more I like betting Duke and Nova. Those are two teams that I could easily see emerging from a chaotic year as national champions. The odds of Duke winning seem a lot more than 1/19, and I think Nova's shot of winning the title is more like 1/8 than 1/21.

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jontaejones said:

What I should start doing, and it won't make you a lot of $$, but will almost guarantee you make a profit, is pick all of the bluebloods with a reasonable chance of winning. That includes the bolded this year.

I'll also say right now that Iowa State and Gonzaga have zero chance of winning.

BTW, where is UConn? When will they learn? Never count out UConn.

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