ST thread

I think we will see Phillips in the 3 spot behind Votto. Personally, I think the decision to move Votto into the 2 hole was more P.R. than function. If he is hitting in the 2 spot, he isn't expected to provide the long ball as much. The fans will be less challenged by that. Phillips, who is driven by the RBI statistic, will get way more RBI chances in the 3 slot.

The RP who I can't yet figure out is Kevin Gregg. The guy has a long career and hasn't been particularly terrible. How does he fit into this bullpen? Is he better than Jumbo Diaz or Sam LeCure? Gregg has also been a closer.

Phillips is a 7 hitter with a 3 hitter ego, IMO. He won't hit 20HR, walk or steal bases. He isn't likely to hit .270. I think he's only had a single .300 and 30HR year, a long time ago. He's entering middle age for middle infielders. I don't think he's in the top 5 hitters on this team currently, given his limitations and consistent stat declines over the last 4 years.

Nothing wrong with early opportunity based on tenure, but if Price is willing to make a lineup and stick with it, to keep the peace instead of generate the most runs, it's going to be a problem. Hamilton, Votto, Mesoraco, Frazier are clearly better run generators, and so is Bruce if he's going deep 30 times. Byrd might be the closest to Phillips as far as BA/OBP and lack of steal speed is concerned, but he hit over 20 HR and 80 RBI last year with a dead Phillies team. I'd see Byrd in a 5 spot before Phillips. Maybe sandwich Phillips between him and Bruce if JB is still looking like a whiffaholic, but I just can't see BP as better than a 6 hitter anymore. I like his D though.


This team is probably going to strike out a lot. Everyone in the projected lineup is likely for 100+ K's over a full season. Might not be as tough if most of them could either steal substantial bases (only Hamilton can do that) or hit more than 20 HR. I think Votto, Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco and Byrd are likely to do that. I'd bet against the rest- including Phillips, though. I might take a bet on Hamilton and Cozart each hitting more HR in 500 AB than Phillips.

Dunno about Gregg. They have to DFA someone on the 40 man roster to take him I think, if that matters. If they keep 7 relievers, I think Chapman, Parra, Cingrani, LeCure and Badenhop are likely locks. That only leaves 2 spots.

They could stay with 6 in the pen and hold the position spot for Bailey.

Price comment on DeJesus:

"I couldn't be happier for the type of camp he's had. If he makes our club or doesn't make our club, it will make me really happy to have him in our system if he's not on our club."

What, does Price have no control over his roster?

I dunno what he really said there. I think that was the goal. I suppose the GM and manager should both contribute to the roster decision, but semantics of weight in that call is probably different in every team. I still haven't come to grips with Price being on Jocketty's side of the argument for Chapman starting, then switching sides when he had the call.

The quote John posted has become Price's patented type answer. I don't think I've seen someone more hesitant than this guy to take a stand when answering a question. He flip flops more during a single answer than a politician running for office.

He should just shorten his answers to "Maybe, maybe not."

DeJesus, Falu and Dominquez are all on the short list for that 25th spot.
For the moment, 2 of them can make it since the need to rush Bailey back is minimal and he will probably only miss a couple of starts. Early on, a shorter bullpen is probably OK.
After that, it's a question of the definition of "utility."

Dominquez can play 1B, 3B and LF. I assume DeJesus plays all over the infield. Practically any infielder can play LF and the Reds already have Boesch, Negron and Skippy to back up Byrd. Frazier can even go to LF. Cozart can just play deep if we need the shift.


This is the first time in recent memory that a farmie has actually been given a CHANCE to make the roster. In previous years, a Latin-speaking utility guy has taken that job on a 2-year contract to hit .189.

After all, Ramon Santiago and Exxon Valdez and Cesar Izturis are all ticketed for the Reds Hall of Fame.

I think it's odd it always comes down to this. Dominquez, Falu and DeJesus are all Latin names. I bear no malice toward Latins in the league, just think it's an odd repeat of ongoing Reds history.

FWIW:

Falu is a gutsy kind of middle infielder. I like his aggressive baserunning and it's likely he will eventually replace Phillips in the everyday lineup.

Well, at the risk of being called a racist, I'll make some generalizations about the abundance of Latin infielders- in my lifetime, there have always been a ton of them-in every teams system.. I understand why. They usually have great, soft hands and superior positioning. They stay lower and charge quicker. They don't get played by the ball as much, and even avoid cleats and collisions better. They pick errant throws better. They focus.


I think I know why...a lot more practice. Years of it, on rocky, potholed, "bad" infields compared to many future MLB infielders, who often were primarily pitchers until college or minors, and most played on fields manicured in comparison to the back lots of the DR, PR, Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, or even dusty old small town desert fields of the SW US. If you get used to playing those cactus hops, playing golf greens is easy. Pitchers and outfielders are often big, natural country club studs with long easy strides and cleaner uni's, but DP infielders and catchers are more blue collar mentality. Defense there is harder work, but it's how to make a living without being able to throw 98 or hit a 500 foot flyball.

I have a lot of respect for Latin players. The ones I knew were hard working guys that didn't need a daily pat on the head, air conditioning or a soft bed. They were less fragile emotionally. They were cooperative and professional. Good teammates. They were used to playing all day, everyday, no complaints, and sending money home to family. Not much drama. Pride, but not much ego.

Not many of them considered themselves "shortstops", they could and had played anywhere. Younger kids there aren't always as age segregated as in Daddy's "select" Little League teams here, and even later legit Legion, AAU or varsity competition. They play a lot more innings, in worse conditions, often with older kids. They often get better instruction at earlier age too, from relatives and coaches that played at least the equivilent of semi-pro themselves. Parents don't try to sue coaches for discipline or playing time there, and everyone doesn't get a trophy... Most early coaches in the US have good intentions, they just don't have the credentials to give someone a real head start. It's a smaller circle there for scouts, too. Everyone there knows of one or two, or someone that does...and you can't get signed if you don't get found. They can be signed at 16 and get better full time instruction than most here in good high schools. There are half a million kids a year U.S. scouts never even see here, and with all the bogus recruiting PR for hire "agencies" and shady would-be agents out there, I suspect many U.S. kids scouts do see, are a waste of time.

Nice analysis.

Reds plan to give Chapman the start Sunday against the Cubs. No idea what that means. Maybe Rizzo will get plunked.

If Bruce had attempted to fix his hitting problems, he didn't get very far.
This is not a good sign.

Maybe just getting the bullpen done work in Chapmans start. I'd love to see him as the #2 SP in this rotation though...would put a whole new twist on the Reds.

He only threw 1 inning. I think the teams are posturing now, not showing the opponents too much.

Scouting reports are already out on 95% of rosters, and will be 100% in two weeks. There are no secret weapons that stay secret very long. I think they were just jacking around to try to get some type of starting rotation in relative order. IMO, that's a stretch because any way you toss them, Cueto and Leake are the only established MLB starters the Reds have currently, that can be trusted not to blow up in the 3rd inning. I'm hoping Desclafani can be a .500 pitcher with an ERA around 4.50, and Iglasias is the next version of Cueto, and Bailey won't miss many starts, or this team is in real trouble... Marquis is a terrible pitcher long out of gas, IMO.

I think the problem early on is:
We can fairly expect Cueto to give 2 solid starts, maybe win both.
Leake might do OK the first 2 starts.
After that, it's a grab-bag of guesswork. Alleging the Reds hit like the did last year, they could be 1-5 on the first homestand against the Birds and the Parrots. I know 1-5 isn't the end of the world, but it's against divisional rivals. I just don't think our 3-4-5 guys are dependable, and given Leake's history, he is nowhere near a No. 2 guy.

Bailey figures to miss at least 2 weeks.

Are the Reds dangling Kevin Gregg? Seems like he isn't part of the program and somebody, anybody, would bite on a veteran relief pitcher. There are plenty of GMs who think signing middle and late relievers is an alternative to getting real pitchers.

Please tell me that Badenhop isn't as bad as Ondrusek.

Badenhop has good previous stats. He's looked like a batting practice pitcher this spring though. He may have come down with the same disease that strikes a Red or two every year- they just stop getting outs. I think he's on a 2 year deal, so that would figure.

From everything I've heard locally Kevin Gregg has been in Price's short list of bullpen guys he knew he was keeping for a couple weeks. The Reds generally don't pay retention fees on 6 year MLB veteran relievers in years past, so good, bad, or indifferent the guy looks to have a job to start the season.

Ondrusek never pitched as poorly as this guy did this spring. Burke Badenhop is a soft tossing sinker baller. He throws primarily one pitch 75% of the time, if the sinker isn't working there's not a lot of other tricks in his bag. Hopefully getting out of the Arizona dry air will aid his sinker.

Marquis, Desclafani, and even Leake to a lesser degree are really going to struggle on days when they lack command and pitch behind in the count. Not going to see those guys dialing it up and blowing away hitters because they can't on their best day. Homer and Cueto have more ammunition.

This team looks to be primed to have a big drop in IP from it's SP this season. The bullpen has plenty of question marks at this point and will soon show it's true self. Most bullpens don't hold up well to over usage and a suspect offense never helps.

The offense still looks like the same team that will be heavily dependent on the long ball to score. Low OBP, high strike outs, predominant fly ball hitting teams make for poor small ball scoring. This team probably needs to hit 180-200 home runs to score enough to be competitive.

You don't hear much from Price this ST about aggressive base running/ stealing bases. That seems to have been placed on the back burner.