The dollar will collapse in the next couple years

[Disney Plorster]

Most or none of you will believe me, but it will happen. I have been worried about this for awhile now, but there is little that can stop it with our debt spiraling out of control. Over 15 trillion now, and eventually interest will be too high, and major cuts will have to be made. Our fiat currency has only even lasted so long because of the Federal Reserve, and it is the world reserve currency, but eventually countries will wise up, and say no more.

The United States will be the next Greece, but on a much larger scale. Even if I am wrong about the dollar collapsing, something huge is coming. Just think right now, if oil was priced in something other than dollars. That would drive oil prices through the roof overnight, and would cripple businesses, and of course any of you filling up your gas tank.

The Federal Reserve needs to be abolished, and major cuts need to be made, and I am talking monumental cuts. We have backed ourselves into a corner, and it will get ugly.

[Leader O'Cola]

then why is there a negative real yield on currently new treasuries ?

[ckhokie]

OP, your post lacks any real economic substance.

[grayghost668]

I'll worry when it happens

[757Hokie83]

[fordman84]

What a load of crap. If the dollar collapses the world economy collapses. As the dollar gets weaker, or stays weaker I should say, US labor becomes more practical.


We need to quit all the quick fixes and meddling and let the system work itself out. As incomes drop, costs are dropping, prices will drop or supply will build up, and the reset button will have pressed itself. You can't always be growing and beating YoY numbers. At some point you need a painful correction to get back down, then you can start growing again. Happens in every sector of business and the economy is not any different.

[JuiceTheGator]

Originally Posted by Leader O'Cola

then why is there a negative real yield on currently new treasuries ?

Because the Federal Reserve buys them with printed money en masse. Doesn't everyone already know this? It's called monetizing the debt and the reason the cost of staples has skyrocketed.

[JuiceTheGator]

Originally Posted by fordman84

What a load of crap. If the dollar collapses the world economy collapses. As the dollar gets weaker, or stays weaker I should say, US labor becomes more practical.


We need to quit all the quick fixes and meddling and let the system work itself out. As incomes drop, costs are dropping, prices will drop or supply will build up, and the reset button will have pressed itself. You can't always be growing and beating YoY numbers. At some point you need a painful correction to get back down, then you can start growing again. Happens in every sector of business and the economy is not any different.

The question is how much weaker the $ can get in comparison to other currencies...it's relative. Europe is now printing Euros like crazy, Japan has been printing yen, etc etc.
Yes, you are seeing America's wealth evaporate with every dollar borrowed to pay worthless entitlements rather than produce something...just like Greece. Whether the dollar will actually crash, when we sell the world much of its food and energy, is another matter.
When the Fed is printing buttloads of cash, a couple things have always proven true:

1.) It pays to have a lot of debt on tangible assets. Get a 30 year mortgage and pay the minimum because you're going to pay it off in depreciated dollars.
2.) Don't hold cash - put all your funds into precious metals, real estate and other real assets because it will take more dollars to buy them in the future.
3.) American exporters will be helped by a weaker $. Our exports to Brazil and other countries not is as much trouble should increase. Invest in stocks accordingly.

It's simple stuff but you'll see everyone always doing the opposite...like paying down their debt now or avoiding a big real estate purchase. Be a contrarian and you'll be cool like the Juice.

[Leader O'Cola]

Originally Posted by JuiceTheGator

Because the Federal Reserve buys them with printed money en masse. Doesn't everyone already know this? It's called monetizing the debt and the reason the cost of staples has skyrocketed.

this MIGHT pass as a 4th grade level of thinking if the fed were the only person/group/thing buying treasuries... of course.... it isn't....

[JuiceTheGator]

Here's a reality post:

The Fed is keeping treasury prices soaring with a trillion $ purchased:




This is what LoserOC does when he says something stupid:

[Leader O'Cola]

Originally Posted by JuiceTheGator

Here's a reality post:

The Fed is keeping treasury prices soaring with a trillion $ purchased:




This is what LoserOC does when he says something stupid:
[/IMG]

So in 3+ years the debt has done up ~5T, and you post a plot showing the FED as having acquired ~1.1-1.2T .... and you think this justifies your claim that only the fed is purchasing treasuries ?

Farking 4th grade math, how does it work?

[JuiceTheGator]

Originally Posted by Leader O'Cola

So in 3+ years the debt has done up ~5T, and you post a plot showing the FED as having acquired ~1.1-1.2T .... and you think this justifies your claim that only the fed is purchasing treasuries ?

Farking 4th grade math, how does it work?

lmao. Keep dancing monkey boi.

[ForkEmBucky]

[olympicoscar]

Originally Posted by Disney Plorster

Most or none of you will believe me, but it will happen. I have been worried about this for awhile now, but there is little that can stop it with our debt spiraling out of control. Over 15 trillion now, and eventually interest will be too high, and major cuts will have to be made. Our fiat currency has only even lasted so long because of the Federal Reserve, and it is the world reserve currency, but eventually countries will wise up, and say no more.

The United States will be the next Greece, but on a much larger scale. Even if I am wrong about the dollar collapsing, something huge is coming. Just think right now, if oil was priced in something other than dollars. That would drive oil prices through the roof overnight, and would cripple businesses, and of course any of you filling up your gas tank.

The Federal Reserve needs to be abolished, and major cuts need to be made, and I am talking monumental cuts. We have backed ourselves into a corner, and it will get ugly.

The Fed does not need to be abolished. We need real economists running a complex financial system, not politicians. There isn't one president in the long history of our country that has/had the knowledge to even be a member of the Fed.

Yes we have money problems. No argument there. I would prefer to allow the professionals handle it.

[olympicoscar]

Originally Posted by Leader O'Cola

then why is there a negative real yield on currently new treasuries ?

I assume your comparing the yield against the rate of inflation?

[olympicoscar]

Originally Posted by fordman84

What a load of crap. If the dollar collapses the world economy collapses. As the dollar gets weaker, or stays weaker I should say, US labor becomes more practical.


We need to quit all the quick fixes and meddling and let the system work itself out. As incomes drop, costs are dropping, prices will drop or supply will build up, and the reset button will have pressed itself. You can't always be growing and beating YoY numbers. At some point you need a painful correction to get back down, then you can start growing again. Happens in every sector of business and the economy is not any different.

Much better content than OP. Massive sales during Christmas and into the new year convince me that your correct. We have some turnaround, but uncertainties involving Greece and other Euro countries, combined with the situation in Iran makes predictions very risky.

[olympicoscar]

Originally Posted by JuiceTheGator

The question is how much weaker the $ can get in comparison to other currencies...it's relative. Europe is now printing Euros like crazy, Japan has been printing yen, etc etc.
Yes, you are seeing America's wealth evaporate with every dollar borrowed to pay worthless entitlements rather than produce something...just like Greece. Whether the dollar will actually crash, when we sell the world much of its food and energy, is another matter.
When the Fed is printing buttloads of cash, a couple things have always proven true:

1.) It pays to have a lot of debt on tangible assets. Get a 30 year mortgage and pay the minimum because you're going to pay it off in depreciated dollars.
2.) Don't hold cash - put all your funds into precious metals, real estate and other real assets because it will take more dollars to buy them in the future.
3.) American exporters will be helped by a weaker $. Our exports to Brazil and other countries not is as much trouble should increase. Invest in stocks accordingly.

It's simple stuff but you'll see everyone always doing the opposite...like paying down their debt now or avoiding a big real estate purchase. Be a contrarian and you'll be cool like the Juice.

I agree with number1, I've benefitted from it in the past. In the 1980's, I still owed $10,000 on my house and the bank was offering me a discount on the premium since interest rates on house loans were 19% compared to my 6 and 3/4%

Number 2 seems sound. CD's are worthless. One bank told me, "since your one of our special customers we can give you a 0.25% rate of interest for 18 months." Yummy.

I also agree with number 3. Not into Brazil's currency, but Japan and China still have very strong currencies. I will be going to China this year and was shocked at how little the dollar buys compared to previous visit in 1998.

[fordman84]

Originally Posted by olympicoscar

I agree with number1, I've benefitted from it in the past. In the 1980's, I still owed $10,000 on my house and the bank was offering me a discount on the premium since interest rates on house loans were 19% compared to my 6 and 3/4%

Number 2 seems sound. CD's are worthless. One bank told me, "since your one of our special customers we can give you a 0.25% rate of interest for 18 months." Yummy.

I also agree with number 3. Not into Brazil's currency, but Japan and China still have very strong currencies. I will be going to China this year and was shocked at how little the dollar buys compared to previous visit in 1998.

Yeah, that happens when the currency isn't pegged to any tangible market and allowed to fluctuate.

[Disney Plorster]

Does anyone here have any idea about our unfunded liabilities in this country? We now have over 117 trillion and counting, for things like Medicare, Prescription drugs, Social Security, and so on. How will you ever pay for that? There is no mathematical way possible way of continuing to pay for these things without creating money out of thin air electronically, printing it, or borrowing more.

Our National debt to GDP ratio is now 102%. Does that not alarm anyone here? As more and more money is created or borrowed, our currency is devalued. Why is gold nearing 1800$ an once, because the value of the dollar is decreasing, among other things. Our system in completely unsustainable, but what is worse is that it likely cannot be reversed enough to save the country from a huge meltdown from happening way worse than 2008.

Another thing that many of you guys should realize, we have these low interest rates that the government is paying on debt. What happens when those rates go up? Countries still stupidly buy these treasuries, but they will stop eventually, it is just a matter of when. How we ever lasted so long with A+++ status is beyond me. Interest rates in this country need to be raised to fight the future inflation problem, but this will not happen because the Fed hates deflation.

Instead of dealing with the problem, out country will instead continue more and more useless entitlements, not produce things, and at some point, possibly default. Instead of trying to fix things on our terms, the a cruel and natural correction will force it in sometime in this decade.

[potzer25]

this is a grab bag of hot button topics and will be hard to discuss coherently...as to the dollar having a catastrophic crash event, it is unlikely...

What alternative could investors move into if not the USD? The Euro? Don't make me laugh. Some transactions between countries are being moved out of the dollar but there is nothing available on a wide scale that could cause a catastrophic crash...

The US is STILL the largest economy (by a wide margin) and that means that other countries need to export to us. Those same countries (i.e. China and Japan, et al) invest in us for that reason. For them to simply sell off dollars and cause a crash would hurt them.