Smart's Bubble Watch

Smart · 01-29-2012, 04:40 PM

Below is my bubble watch, with the odds of each team to be an At-Large pick to the NCAA tourney if they lose in the their conference tournament. It will be updated once every other week until Selection Sunday.

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida

All But Locks (90%-99%):
Florida State
Virginia
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Gonzaga

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Saint Louis
Iowa State
Kansas State
Notre Dame
Louisville
West Virginia
Cincy
UConn
Purdue
Illinois
Indiana
Creighton
Wichita State
New Mexico
Murray State
California
Vanderbilt
Mississippi State
Alabama
Saint Mary’s

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
Xavier
NC State
Texas
Minnesota
Southern Miss
Memphis
Wyoming
Washington
BYU

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Temple
Dayton
Maryland
Miami
Oklahoma
South Florida
Northwestern
Long Beach State
VCU
UCF
Cleveland State
Colorado State
Oregon
Colorado
Stanford
Arizona
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Oral Roberts
MTSU
Nevada

All But Out (1%-10%):
UMass
La Salle
St. Bonaventure
St. Joseph
Clemson
Virginia Tech
TAMU
Seton Hall
Pitt
Weber State
Nebraska
George Mason
Drexel
Tulsa
Marshall
Milwaukee
Iona
Akron
Ohio
Wagner
LSU
Davidson
UT-Arlington
South Dakota State
New Mexico State

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Smart · 01-29-2012, 04:41 PM

Some Notes On This:

1. This is not meant to be a judgment of whether teams would get in if the season ended today. If that were the case, many teams that aren’t locks (such as Murray State) would be locks. Of course, this adds a subjective element to this. How good I think a team is does affect how good I think the rest of their season will be (and thus their chance of getting in).
2. I realize that chaos does rule over college basketball. Because of this, my designations have a conservative slant. I fully expect all of the “All But Locks” to be locks shortly, and I expect the “All But Dones” to be eliminated shortly. At this moment, though, a comeback is not out of the question or collapse is not out of the question.
3. I judge teams primarily off of a few factors: Record, Good Wins, Bad Losses, KenPom rankings, and the Eye Test.
4. Mid-majors have a smaller margin of error, so good mid-majors like Creighton are less likely to be locks than their major conference counterparts.
5. The pure numbers (39 teams “Most Likely In” or better) suggest that the “On The Bubble” Teams should feel very good about themselves. Likewise, there are some “Most Likely Out” teams that do have a very legitimate shot at making the dance as an At-Large.
6. Teams are sorted by the order I evaluated them (basically, the order of ESPN’s Standings Page). Within a category, the order does not matter.

BoiseStateFan27 · 01-30-2012, 09:16 AM

interesting, sir

good job, must be a lot of work

Bone · 01-30-2012, 10:36 AM

1. Cuse
1. Kentucky
1. Baylor
1. Ohio St.

In that order.

State43 · 02-01-2012, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bone

1. Cuse
1. Kentucky
1. Baylor
1. Ohio St.

In that order.

Baylor will not be a 1 seed. They have at least 2-3 more losses left. ISU will get them at home I am betting as well.

Sooner3.14 · 02-01-2012, 04:34 PM

After tonight you can put OU in the definitely out...

huskers1217 · 02-01-2012, 04:36 PM

fucking smart....

you pick on Nebraska..

is probably dead on

HighTide · 02-01-2012, 04:38 PM

Good job.

Jack_John_Mark · 02-01-2012, 06:31 PM

Good list.

Tomorrow night Nebraska and Northwestern will switch places on that list though

01-29-2012, 04:40 PM	#1
Smart UW-Madison, Class of 2012 Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,397 Rep Power: 14913	Smart's Bubble Watch Below is my bubble watch, with the odds of each team to be an At-Large pick to the NCAA tourney if they lose in the their conference tournament. It will be updated once every other week until Selection Sunday. Locks (99%+): Duke North Carolina Kansas Missouri Baylor Syracuse Marquette Ohio State Michigan State Wisconsin UNLV Kentucky Florida All But Locks (90%-99%): Florida State Virginia Georgetown Michigan SDSU Gonzaga Most Likely In (60%-90%): Saint Louis Iowa State Kansas State Notre Dame Louisville West Virginia Cincy UConn Purdue Illinois Indiana Creighton Wichita State New Mexico Murray State California Vanderbilt Mississippi State Alabama Saint Mary’s Right On The Bubble (40%-60%): Xavier NC State Texas Minnesota Southern Miss Memphis Wyoming Washington BYU Most Likely Out (10%-40%): Temple Dayton Maryland Miami Oklahoma South Florida Northwestern Long Beach State VCU UCF Cleveland State Colorado State Oregon Colorado Stanford Arizona Ole Miss Arkansas Oral Roberts MTSU Nevada All But Out (1%-10%): UMass La Salle St. Bonaventure St. Joseph Clemson Virginia Tech TAMU Seton Hall Pitt Weber State Nebraska George Mason Drexel Tulsa Marshall Milwaukee Iona Akron Ohio Wagner LSU Davidson UT-Arlington South Dakota State New Mexico State Done (1%-): Everyone Else

01-30-2012, 09:16 AM	#3
BoiseStateFan27 voted #2 Hoopla member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 37,346 Rep Power: 104669	interesting, sir good job, must be a lot of work __________________ a not so wise person once said: "you guys know it other whys you wouldn't be here"

01-30-2012, 10:36 AM	#4
Bone Jerry lives on.. Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Upstate, NY Posts: 3,360 Rep Power: 5665	1. Cuse 1. Kentucky 1. Baylor 1. Ohio St. In that order. __________________ The bottle was dusty but the liquor was clean.

02-01-2012, 04:34 PM	#6
Sooner3.14 Aces & eights Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: 37.0 N 100.9 W elevation 2881' Posts: 11,430 Rep Power: 10744	After tonight you can put OU in the definitely out... __________________ Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach him how to fish and he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.

01-29-2012, 04:41 PM	#2
Smart UW-Madison, Class of 2012 Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 2,397 Rep Power: 14913	Some Notes On This: 1. This is not meant to be a judgment of whether teams would get in if the season ended today. If that were the case, many teams that aren’t locks (such as Murray State) would be locks. Of course, this adds a subjective element to this. How good I think a team is does affect how good I think the rest of their season will be (and thus their chance of getting in). 2. I realize that chaos does rule over college basketball. Because of this, my designations have a conservative slant. I fully expect all of the “All But Locks” to be locks shortly, and I expect the “All But Dones” to be eliminated shortly. At this moment, though, a comeback is not out of the question or collapse is not out of the question. 3. I judge teams primarily off of a few factors: Record, Good Wins, Bad Losses, KenPom rankings, and the Eye Test. 4. Mid-majors have a smaller margin of error, so good mid-majors like Creighton are less likely to be locks than their major conference counterparts. 5. The pure numbers (39 teams “Most Likely In” or better) suggest that the “On The Bubble” Teams should feel very good about themselves. Likewise, there are some “Most Likely Out” teams that do have a very legitimate shot at making the dance as an At-Large. 6. Teams are sorted by the order I evaluated them (basically, the order of ESPN’s Standings Page). Within a category, the order does not matter.

02-01-2012, 04:36 PM	#7
huskers1217 Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 27,007 Rep Power: 63852	fucking smart.... you pick on Nebraska.. is probably dead on

02-01-2012, 04:38 PM	#8
HighTide Member of the Seniors Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Birmingham Posts: 3,253 Rep Power: 4565	Good job.

02-01-2012, 06:31 PM	#9
Jack_John_Mark ¿Cómo está usted? Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Lincoln, NE Posts: 29,756 Rep Power: 22786	Good list. Tomorrow night Nebraska and Northwestern will switch places on that list though