Early 2024 Rankings....

[Duckboy33]

No offense but it's time for you to take your head out of the sand. Oregon is #4 and UF is unranked because of their schedules. Scheduling plays a BIG part in the rankings.

This is a little long but please read it!

Since 2010 Oregon has been ranked 10 years out of the 14 seasons. In those 10 ranked years, Oregon played 25 teams in the 12 Game regular seasons that were ranked and was 12-13. They played 95 unranked teams and went 91-4.

This year Oregon is slated to play 2 ranked teams, so: 12/25*2 = 1.2 wins or 1 -1 record.
This year Oregon is slated to play 10 unranked teams, so: 91/95*10 = 9.58 wins or 10-0 record
Total Oregon is expected to have 10.78 wins or to be 11-1 and ranked #4. Oregon would be in the Big Ten CCG and the CFP.

Suppose Oregon had to play UF's schedule with 8 ranked opponents and 4 unranked teams.
Against ranked teams Oregon is expected to be 12/25*8 = 3.84 wins or 4-4 record
Against unranked teams Oregon is expected to be 91/95*4 = 3.83 wins or 4-0 record
Thus Oregon would be expected have 7.67 wins or to be 8-4 and NOT ranked #4. Oregon would NOT be in the Big Ten CCG or the CFP but would be ranked somewhere.

Since 2010 Florida has been ranked 6 years out of the 14 seasons and unranked in 8 of the 14 seasons. Since we don't know what Florida is let's use all 14 years. In those 14 ranked years, Florida played 56 teams in the 12 Game regular seasons that were ranked and was 15-41. They played 107 unranked teams and went 85-22.

This year Florida is slated to play 8 ranked teams, so: 15/56*8 = 2.14 wins or 2 -6 record.
This year Florida is slated to play 4 unranked teams, so: 85/107*4 = 3.18 wins or 3-1 record
Total Florida is expected to have 5.32 wins or to be 5-7 and unranked. Florida would not be in the SEC CCG, the CFP, or even a bowl game!

Suppose Florida had to play Oregon's schedule with 2 ranked opponents and 10 unranked teams.
Against ranked teams Florida is expected to be 15/56*2 = 0.536 wins or 1-1 record
Against unranked teams Florida is expected to be 85/107*10 = 7.94 wins or 8-2 record
Thus Florida would be expected have 8.48 wins or to be 8-4 and have the same record as Oregon! Florida would not be in the SEC CCG or the CFP, but, would go to a bowl game!

Would Florida be ranked? I hope NOT. An 8-4 record vs 8 ranked opponents is WAY better than 8-4 vs 2 ranked teams!

If Florida and Oregon played on a neutral field in 2024, Oregon is likely a 2 TD favorite (or more).

Last year I saw Utah handle Florida easily in SLC. Oregon went into SLC and won by 4 TDs and put their foot off the gas in the 3rd quarter. You can do whatever math equations you want but the programs are at different levels currently.

 

[Duckboy33]

Look UF only had 2 "bad" loses last year. UF finished in the Massey Composite at #59. The loses to #29 Utah (at Utah, altitude), #2 Georgia, #12 LSU, #9 Missouri, and #8 FSU were understandable. The lose at #41 Kentucky wasn't that bad but the lose Arkansas at home was just putrid. The only win of note was vs #17 Tennessee although the win at #61 South Carolina was ok. Wins Vandy, Charlotte, and McNeese State - yawn.

As for Oregon: Their only Regular season loss was to #2 Washington. Their 11 wins were against: (+8-5) Oregon State, (+8-5) Southern California, (+8-5) Utah, (+6-7) California, (+5-7) Washington State, (+4-8) Colorado, (+3-9) Arizona State, (+3-9) Stanford, (+5-8) Hawaii, and Portland State. So Oregon never beat a team with fewer than FIVE loses last year.

Let's use the Massey Composite since you brought it up:

Oregon had 4 Massey Composite Top 30 wins. Florida had 1 Massey Composite Top 50 wins.

Florida finished #59 in the composite rankings. The closes ranked opponent to Florida for Oregon was California (#58). Oregon beat them 63-16.

Oregon's two losses came against Washington (Composite #3) by a combined 6 points. Florida lost to Utah (a team Oregon beat 35-6), #41 Kentucky, and #82 Arkansas.

What are we even doing here?

 

[Gator]

Let's use the Massey Composite since you brought it up:

Oregon had 4 Massey Composite Top 30 wins. Florida had 1 Massey Composite Top 50 wins.

Florida finished #59 in the composite rankings. The closes ranked opponent to Florida for Oregon was California (#58). Oregon beat them 63-16.

Oregon's two losses came against Washington (Composite #3) by a combined 6 points. Florida lost to Utah (a team Oregon beat 35-6), #41 Kentucky, and #82 Arkansas.

What are we even doing here?

At what point did I ever say that Florida was as good as Oregon? I keep trying to get people to stop looking at records ALONE. The schedule MUST be considered when making a comparison. A team that goes 11-2 vs high school teams isn't necessarily better than a 5-7 team that plays in the NFL. Most computer systems have the 1987 Florida team in their Top 25 even though they were 6-6. In 2015 Georgia was 10-3 yet went UNRANKED.

 

[All-Star Benchwarmer]

 

[Duckboy33]

At what point did I ever say that Florida was as good as Oregon? I keep trying to get people to stop looking at records ALONE. The schedule MUST be considered when making a comparison. A team that goes 11-2 vs high school teams isn't necessarily better than a 5-7 team that plays in the NFL. Most computer systems have the 1987 Florida team in their Top 25 even though they were 6-6. In 2015 Georgia was 10-3 yet went UNRANKED.

Nobody is saying that we should look at records alone. The reason Oregon is ranked high is because they project as a top 5 team next year. That's true regardless of their schedule. Florida doesn't project as a top 25 team. that's true regardless of their schedule.

Does Florida play a tougher schedule next year? Of course they do. But that's not the reason for the discrepancy in the rankings. That's been my point the entire time.

 

[Gator]

Nobody is saying that we should look at records alone. The reason Oregon is ranked high is because they project as a top 5 team next year. That's true regardless of their schedule. Florida doesn't project as a top 25 team. that's true regardless of their schedule.

Does Florida play a tougher schedule next year? Of course they do. But that's not the reason for the discrepancy in the rankings. That's been my point the entire time.

That's where we disagree. Part of the reason Oregon is ranked at #4 is because of their expected easy schedule (only OSU and Michigan to speak of). If they played 8 top 25 teams that would mean an almost certainty of several losses (in the past 2 seasons Oregon is 3-5 vs T25 teams & 1-4 vs T16 teams). Florida's schedule includes 8 teams in the top 25 and 6 in the top 16. With multiple loses Oregon would not be ranked at #4 (which is unfortunate but true). Over the past 2 seasons Florida has played 25 opponents with 12 out of 25 finishing in the top 25. BTW, #15 Oregon lost to #4 Georgia by 46 points (49-3) in 2022 while my "sucky" team lost to #4 Georgia only 43-20. UF lost to #1 Georgia 42-20 in 2022 and lost to #1 Georgia 34-7 in 2021.

 

[Duckboy33]

That's where we disagree. Part of the reason Oregon is ranked at #4 is because of their expected easy schedule (only OSU and Michigan to speak of). If they played 8 top 25 teams that would mean an almost certainty of several losses (in the past 2 seasons Oregon is 3-5 vs T25 teams & 1-4 vs T16 teams). Florida's schedule includes 8 teams in the top 25 and 6 in the top 16. With multiple loses Oregon would not be ranked at #4 (which is unfortunate but true). Over the past 2 seasons Florida has played 25 opponents with 12 out of 25 finishing in the top 25. BTW, #15 Oregon lost to #4 Georgia by 46 points (49-3) in 2022 while my "sucky" team lost to #4 Georgia only 43-20. UF lost to #1 Georgia 42-20 in 2022 and lost to #1 Georgia 34-7 in 2021.

Forget about schedules. Oregon would be 2 possession favorite on a neutral field against Florida if they played tomorrow (possibly more). That's why Oregon is ranked #4 and UF is unranked.

 

[Gator]

Forget about schedules. Oregon would be 2 possession favorite on a neutral field against Florida if they played tomorrow (possibly more). That's why Oregon is ranked #4 and UF is unranked.

There you go again! I never said Florida would beat Oregon. I said Oregon's #4 ranking is due PARTLY to their schedule and IF they had to play Florida's schedule they wouldn't be ranked #4.

No offense, but there is nothing in Oregon's history (since 1990 anyway) that says that Oregon can handle a schedule like Florida's (hell there is nothing in UF history that says UF can handle it either). In the 11 or 12 game regular season, Oregon has never played 4 top 10 teams in one season (max was 3 top 10 teams) and has never played 8 top 25 teams in one season (max was 5 top 25 teams).

Since 1990 (34 seasons), Oregon has played 3 top 10 teams twice and went 1-2 both times (Oregon was ranked both times). Oregon has played 5 top 25 teams twice and went 2-3 and 1-4 (Oregon was ranked in the 2-3 season.

Since 1990, Florida has played 4 top 10 teams once and went 3-1 (ranked #9). UF has played 3 top 10 teams in 9 seasons. In the 4 season UF was ranked they went 6-6 and in the 5 unranked seasons they were 2-13.

Florida played 5 top 25 teams 6 times and went 4-1, 4-1, 1-4, 0-5, 0-5, 0-5 (UF was ranked in both 4-1 seasons and unranked in the others). UF played 6 ranked opponents 5 times and went 5-1, 4-2, 4-2, 2-4, 2-4, 2-4. UF was ranked in the 5-1, 4-2, 4-2, one of the 2-4 years. They were unranked in the other 2-4 season.